Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.196180 2.552360 2.946619 3.415225 3.956908 4.563311 5.293673
2026-02-01 1.497893 1.935137 2.470755 3.174503 4.074412 5.186387 6.665013
2026-02-08 1.117974 1.575385 2.184203 3.052414 4.257751 5.871367 8.196105
2026-02-15 0.895482 1.357782 2.017632 3.025672 4.524914 6.670917 9.976411
2026-02-22 0.772995 1.248848 1.970336 3.140027 4.985999 7.784690 12.349979
2026-03-01 0.650110 1.111900 1.851025 3.114797 5.217779 8.573813 14.335048
2026-03-08 0.549551 0.990126 1.730999 3.060676 5.382541 9.264303 16.243736
2026-03-15 0.478656 0.904780 1.654683 3.061918 5.630328 10.111244 18.516661
2026-03-22 0.454567 0.897877 1.711184 3.300909 6.321953 11.801370 22.484203
2026-03-29 0.410963 0.846567 1.678105 3.367853 6.704757 12.984665 25.684980
2026-04-05 0.372292 0.798111 1.642164 3.421673 7.065966 14.167843 29.035962
2026-04-12 0.332557 0.740757 1.579644 3.411779 7.296692 15.124132 32.061547
2026-04-19 0.294230 0.681890 1.508887 3.382124 7.499404 16.084989 35.305673
2026-04-26 0.247023 0.595779 1.368238 3.183171 7.318514 16.243539 36.915686
2026-05-03 0.213720 0.535642 1.274881 3.073961 7.317300 16.782420 39.431851
2026-05-10 0.191001 0.496630 1.223105 3.051562 7.508733 17.768170 43.092208
2026-05-17 0.179559 0.483418 1.229660 3.168500 8.044143 19.604260 48.985550
2026-05-24 0.161477 0.449978 1.181746 3.143600 8.230962 20.650444 53.138195
2026-05-31 0.144172 0.415508 1.125773 3.089175 8.335165 21.511003 56.956252
2026-06-07 0.131512 0.391521 1.093106 3.090494 8.582977 22.759420 61.935235
2026-06-14 0.130129 0.399264 1.146219 3.331700 9.503709 25.841523 72.126846
2026-06-21 0.121774 0.385175 1.137278 3.399266 9.961018 27.777321 79.528450
2026-06-28 0.113688 0.370476 1.124359 3.453583 10.389746 29.695199 87.155227